(This is part of a weekly email I send out to the St. Paul congregation. Some of it is obviously specific to our context. Much of it, however, may easily apply to your church and situation.)
As we talk about taking steps into the future as a congregation, you need to be aware of some trends taking place in society and how those will affect us in very tangible ways. To be sure, there are drastic changes coming in the next 10-15 years in how we do ministry. Those changes inevitable; my hope is that we as a church will figure out, proactively, what we want to do about it rather than simply let the change happen to us. Again, these changes are inevitable; it your decision to either drive the changes needed to weather what is coming, or just let those changes happen to us. Here are there factors I want you to consider.
1. Rising
costs. The costs for overhead operating expenses for churches –
health insurance for pastors, utilities, insurance have been rising sharply in
recent years. We expect these costs to continue to rise sharply into the
future.
2.
Declining membership and revenue.
Most churches have felt a financial squeeze in recent years, particularly
focused around the recession that began in 2008. We should not expect
this to simply “pick up” when the economy recovers. Why? Because as
Dr. Lovett Weems of the Lewis Center for Church Leadership in Washington, DC
says, in warning us about a coming “Death Tsunami:” The U.S. death rate is currently in a stable period that began
in 2003 and continues until 2018. But what follows this plateau is a death wave
in which there will be more deaths and a higher death rate than at any time
since the widespread introduction of antibiotics and other medical advances.
The total number of deaths each year will go up until 2050, and the majority of
these deaths will be older non-Hispanic whites and African Americans, the two
largest constituencies of mainline churches.”
Think of the number of our members who are “older
non-Hispanic whites.” If we are not reaching more people, younger people,
and more diverse people, our chances for long-term survival as a church are
grim.
Weems calls for resetting the financial baseline in
congregations ahead of the “death tsunami.” He says, “As with any organization facing the future after 45 years of
unabated decline in its constituency, there must be a stepping back to a new
and lower baseline in order to move forward. Otherwise, all energy must go to
maintaining the old unrealistic financial baseline.
The purpose of resetting the financial baseline is to free the preoccupation from money to reaching people for Christ through vital congregations. The criteria that matter going forward must be around reaching people, and the whole system needs alignment toward that goal. Money is a lagging indicator. We reset in order to return to the basics on which all giving depends — changed lives and transformed communities. There is no future for churches that cannot reach more people, younger people, and more diverse people.
The death tsunami is coming. If it sweeps over a church already stretched to its limits to survive financially year by year, the result could be catastrophic. However, if it comes to a church that has reset its baseline and demonstrated the ability to begin growing, then the losses will occur, but will not deter the "field of energy" already moving in the denomination. Such a church will not only survive but come out on the other side as a growing, missional, and spiritually alive instrument of God. The time to make choices is now — while there are still choices to be made. Otherwise, circumstances will make the choices for us in the future.
The purpose of resetting the financial baseline is to free the preoccupation from money to reaching people for Christ through vital congregations. The criteria that matter going forward must be around reaching people, and the whole system needs alignment toward that goal. Money is a lagging indicator. We reset in order to return to the basics on which all giving depends — changed lives and transformed communities. There is no future for churches that cannot reach more people, younger people, and more diverse people.
The death tsunami is coming. If it sweeps over a church already stretched to its limits to survive financially year by year, the result could be catastrophic. However, if it comes to a church that has reset its baseline and demonstrated the ability to begin growing, then the losses will occur, but will not deter the "field of energy" already moving in the denomination. Such a church will not only survive but come out on the other side as a growing, missional, and spiritually alive instrument of God. The time to make choices is now — while there are still choices to be made. Otherwise, circumstances will make the choices for us in the future.
3.
Availability
of Clergy. To put it crudely, this is a supply and demand
issue. Right now in Western North Carolina, we have about as many clergy
as we have appointments to fill. This is not the case in all conferences;
there are already a number of conferences that are experiencing a clergy
shortage, meaning every year, there are churches who go without a pastor, often
for years at a time.
However,
before we breathe a big sigh of relief, we’re not too far away from that.
The average age of the active clergy currently serving in Western North
Carolina is 54. Meaning? Over the next 10-12 years, half of
the ordained clergy in our conference will retire, meaning they are no longer
available for appointment.
Someone
asked, “Aren’t young people coming into ministry anymore?” And, yes, they
are. Young clergy like me, those who are 35 or under, represent about 5%
of the total clergy in the conference. That figure is expected to remain
about the same for the forseeable future.
So
in the next 10 years:
·
50% of
our clergy will retire
·
Another
5% will come in
·
Resulting
in a net loss of 45% of our available clergy
So What? Good
question. Put all those factors on the table at the same time, and in a
few years we have this combination:
·
Exponential
rise in costs
· Decline in revenue
· Decline in membership
· Not enough pastors to go around
· Decline in revenue
· Decline in membership
· Not enough pastors to go around
Gil Rendle, Senior
Consultant with the Texas Methodist Foundation in Austin, TX and a leading
voice on how these trends will play out, estimates that by 2030:
·
1/3 of
existing United Methodist churches will close
·
1/3 of
existing United Methodist churches will consolidate, merge, form a cooperative
parish, or be joined in a charge (one or more churches sharing a pastor)
·
1/3 of
existing United Methodist churches will continue to operate about how they
currently are
In short, our largest and
most-resourced congregations will be fine. These also tend to be
congregations that are growing and specifically reaching more, younger, and
more diverse people. Their focus is already on mission rather than money
or maintenance. Our smallest and least-resourced congregations will have the
hardest time. Those who wait for change to happen rather than planning
proactively will have the hardest time of all. These congregations are
already spending an inordinate amount of their focus on money and maintenance;
mission is already secondary, and they will not survive.
The question for us to
consider is where St. Paul will fall in this. Change is coming – costs will
rise, people will die, resources will be stretched,
pastors will be in short supply. What happens to this
congregation as a result of these changes is directly related to the decisions
this congregation makes now. We can make choices now while we still have
options, or allow these factors to play themselves out until we have no
options.
The time to prepare is
now. What changes and decisions do we need to make in order to weather
the storm? If we wait until all these things are taking place, it will
already be too late.
My fear is that if we, and
neighboring churches like us, wait until it’s too late, there will be no United
Methodist Church in this part of Charlotte. Whether or not that happens
is up to you. The choices and decisions necessary are yours to
make. The changes are coming, one way or the other. My hope is that
10, 20, 50 years from now, there is at least one vibrant, healthy United
Methodist Church in this part of Charlotte actively engaged in its mission of
making disciples of Jesus Christ.
What will the future look
like? It will certainly be different. But how well we live into it
depends on the choices we make now. May God give us the grace and
guidance to choose wisely the path that best pleases and honors God.